Goldman Sachs: Gold Remains the Most Confident Long-Term Commodity Allocation

Goldman Sachs stated that the upside risks to its gold price forecasts of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 per ounce by December 2026 have further intensified, and gold remains the most confident long-term commodity allocation.

On December 21, 2018, amid the funding dispute over Trump's US-Mexico border wall, the Senate adjourned without reaching any agreement, leading to another federal government shutdown. The shutdown lasted until Trump signed a three-week temporary spending bill on January 25, 2019. The 35-day shutdown was the longest in US history, reflecting the significant political divide between the two parties at the time.

Concerns over fiscal deficits and unsustainable government spending heightened market uncertainty, weakened the US dollar, and increased the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. Earlier on September 30, New York gold futures broke above $3,900 per ounce, setting a new historical high. Since the beginning of this year, gold prices have risen by over 45%. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Index fell to a one-week low, marking its longest losing streak since September 1.

It is worth noting that the non-farm payrolls data, originally scheduled for release on October 3, will also be delayed due to the government shutdown. This data is a key reference for the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustments. The lack of critical reference information may make it more difficult for the Fed to assess the economic fundamentals, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut at the end of this month.

Given the ongoing US government shutdown, many analysts expect gold prices to break through the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce in the coming days. UBS Group pointed out that, if this trend continues, gold prices could potentially reach $4,200 by mid-2026.