The "Quality" of U.S. Official Data Is Too Poor!

The increasingly declining quality of U.S. official data is undoubtedly making it difficult for many economists and investment banks to accurately assess the true state of the American economy. As a result, many professional institutions are now forced to change their traditional methods of analyzing the U.S. economy...

DoubleLine Capital, a well-known asset management firm under the "New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach, stated on Wednesday that it is now comprehensively using both official and private data sources to evaluate the health of the U.S. economy, due to concerns about the declining quality of data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

In August of this year, the BLS unusually made significant downward revisions to the non-farm payroll data for May and June, causing market volatility and raising concerns that the Federal Reserve might have been "making decisions in the dark." This suggests that the Fed may need to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. At the time, President Trump also baselessly accused the July non-farm payroll report of being fabricated and replaced the head of the BLS, further fueling doubts about the credibility of U.S. economic data.

In response, Ryan Kimmel, a fixed income allocation strategist at DoubleLine Capital, stated in a report, "At DoubleLine, we are now adopting a holistic approach to monitor the health of the economy."

Kimmel explained that DoubleLine Capital monitors official data, including reports from the BLS, but also supplements this with private datasets, corporate earnings conference calls, and insights from internal experts on corporate bonds, consumer credit, commercial real estate, and mortgages.