【Adam Theory 】Chapter 6: "Is" vs. "Should"

  • 2025-07-12

Mr. What-Should-Be is concerned with what *should* happen. Most traders are also single-mindedly focused on what *should* happen. All fundamental considerations are based on what *should* occur. If a commodity is in ample supply, the market *should* decline. If the harvest is poor, demand *should* exceed supply, and prices *should* rise. If an Elliott Wave has one more leg to complete, the market *should* go up. If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 80, the market *should* reverse downward. Our thoughts constantly revolve around what *should* happen.  

 

We obsess over what the market *should* do. But in the market, none of this matters. What’s important is what *is* happening right now... meaning we focus on what the price *is* at the *present* moment.  

 

Sloman’s words carry even greater weight:  

*"As stated, the greatest secrets and principles are always the simplest. Simple things are repeatedly overlooked precisely because they are too obvious—so obvious that people fail to see them."*  

 

If we truly think about it, we’ll realize that the only thing that matters in the market is the direction it’s moving *right now*. Everything else is—completely—irrelevant. If every system and method in the world says a particular market *should* be falling at this moment, but in reality, it’s rising—then rising *is* the current trend. That’s the only thing that matters.  

 

Let me say it again: All reasoning about how the market *should* behave is utterly insignificant. (Note: Not necessarily wrong, just entirely irrelevant.)  

The only thing that matters is how the market is *actually* behaving right now.  

 

Yes, this means all the market analysis and thinking methods we love to use must be thrown into the trash—not just reduced in importance or partially discarded, but completely abandoned.  

 

Why? Because the two are incompatible. If we use any system or method—even partially, casually, or "just to see what it says"—we cannot fully focus on the market’s *current* movement.  

 

The advantage of "Here and Now" over others lies in her complete ignorance of the market, thus freeing her from distractions. She can see the market directly, without fog or filters distorting her view.

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