Stock Market Narratives Display Diverse Characteristics Such as "Tech Bull"

　　Beijing News Shell Finance: How do you view the current A-share market? What are the similarities and differences between this round of market performance compared to a decade ago?

　　Shao Yu: Recently, the market has been booming with a significant increase in trading volume, and the market capitalization of A-shares has reached new highs, sparking discussions about a "bull market." Compared to the 2015-2016 market performance a decade ago, the comparison can be made from three driving factors: fundamentals, liquidity, and market sentiment.

　　The 2015-2016 market performance was primarily driven by policy stimulus to support the economy. Macro policies were relatively aggressive, with tools such as shantytown redevelopment policies and pledged supplementary lending releasing substantial liquidity besides conventional monetary policies. Off-market funds leveraged their investments through channels like umbrella trusts, leading to high market sentiment, with narratives largely centered around a "flood bull."

　　This round of market performance started with the "September 24 Policy" adjustment last year. Monetary policy has been relatively aggressive, and recent fiscal policy has also seen some breakthroughs. In terms of liquidity, this round has not relied on off-market channels, but the margin trading balance has hit a record high. There are clear signs of bank deposits shifting to the equity market, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.1 trillion yuan in July.

　　The current market sentiment is driven by factors such as technological innovation (e.g., DeepSeek), external expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and geopolitical easing. Recently, expectations related to the military industry and new productive forces have also become clearer, resulting in diverse narratives such as a "tech bull."

　　Overall, both rounds of market performance share similarities in terms of fundamental support, ample liquidity, and sentiment-driven moves. However, differences exist in policy intensity, leverage channels, and narrative logic, requiring careful discernment.