The reasons people are bullish on crypto are obvious. But the market is still overlooking a few things.

Right now, there’s a lot to be excited about in crypto. Regulation and legislation are moving in positive directions; stablecoins are thriving; corporate purchases of crypto are soaring; institutions are slowly but steadily adding crypto to their portfolios via ETFs; and Ethereum has reawakened, injecting some much-needed altcoin energy into the broader crypto market.

The problem—if there is one—is that all of this is well known. I generally think the market is underestimating the scale of these developments, but they’re not happening unnoticed. The media is full of stories about the crypto bull market.

Still, I think the market is in for meaningful upside surprises by year-end. Here are four big developments I don’t think are priced in.

1. More Governments Will Buy Bitcoin This Year
   At the start of 2025, the consensus was that bitcoin demand this year would come from three primary sources: ETFs, corporations, and governments. We called them the “Three Horsemen of Bitcoin Demand.”

So far, two of the three heavyweights have delivered: ETFs have bought 183,126 BTC, and public companies have absorbed 354,744 BTC. Given that the Bitcoin network is only producing 100,697 BTC, that’s enough to push prices up 27.1%.

But the third horseman hasn’t really arrived. Yes, the U.S. established a strategic bitcoin reserve, but it only holds bitcoin seized through criminal forfeitures. Yes, Pakistan announced its own bitcoin reserve, and Abu Dhabi invested in a bitcoin ETF, but these are drops in the bucket compared to the torrent of ETF and corporate buying.

The consensus view is that sovereign adoption of bitcoin as a reserve asset is off the table. I suspect that’s wrong. Countries and central banks move slowly, but based on our conversations at Bitwise, they are moving.

To be clear: I don’t expect a flood of national-level announcements before year-end, but I do suspect there will be more—enough to make it a major potential catalyst for 2026. That alone could meaningfully lift prices.

2. Weaker Dollar + Lower Rates = Higher Bitcoin
   One unique thing about the current situation is that bitcoin is trading at all-time highs while interest rates hover near their highest levels since bitcoin’s birth in 2009. This shouldn’t happen. High rates are a challenge for non-yielding assets like bitcoin (and gold), as they set a high hurdle rate for holding them.

The market expects multiple rate cuts by year-end, which should support bitcoin. But I think the market is missing a bigger story.

The Trump administration is strongly signaling it wants a weaker dollar, and the Fed is turning more dovish. From directly criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell to appointing weak-dollar advocate Stephen Milan to the Fed board, the administration is sending strong hints that it wants rates to fall sharply—and the dollar to weaken.

Not three rate cuts. Six. Or eight.

Milan’s appointment is particularly notable. Milan is best known for a paper arguing that the dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency imposes a massive burden on the U.S. He has called for a new “Mar-a-Lago Accord” to devalue the dollar against other global currencies and hinted the Fed could achieve this by printing money aggressively.

If rates fall sharply and the dollar weakens meaningfully due to money printing, bitcoin could trade dramatically higher.

3. Lower Volatility = Higher Allocations
   One of the least-discussed trends in crypto is the dramatic decline in bitcoin’s volatility. Since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, both bitcoin’s volatility and the speed of its volatility changes have fallen sharply.

Bitcoin 30-Day Rolling Volatility

Source: Bitwise Asset Management, with data from Coin Metrics. Data covers December 31, 2012, to August 10, 2025.

The decline in volatility makes sense. The growth of ETF and corporate buying has introduced new buyer types to the crypto market, and regulatory and legislative progress has meaningfully reduced market risk. I suspect this is the “new normal” for bitcoin. Today, bitcoin’s volatility is roughly on par with high-volatility tech stocks like Nvidia.

Volatility: BTC vs. Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta

1-Year Rolling Annualized Volatility

Source: Bitwise Asset Management, with data from Bloomberg. Data covers December 31, 2019, to June 30, 2025.

In my conversations with institutional investors, this lower volatility is translating into higher portfolio allocation conversations than in the past. Pre-ETF, 1% was the main starting point for discussions; now, I routinely hear people talking about starting at 5% or higher.

This goes a long way toward explaining the acceleration in bitcoin ETF inflows ($5.6 billion in net inflows since July 1, which annualizes to nearly $50 billion). The fact that summer is typically a slow season for ETF inflows tells me this trend is likely to accelerate further in the fall.

4. ICO 2.0: The Rebirth of Crypto Fundraising
   Initial coin offerings (ICOs) have a bad reputation. In 2018, fraudulent ICOs—paper projects that raised billions from investors before disappearing, never to launch—were a key reason the 2017 crypto bull market ended abruptly. The SEC cracked down hard, and investors grew weary of the scams.

I think most investors and observers view ICOs as damaged goods. But in a recent speech on “Crypto Projects,” SEC Chair Paul Atkins outlined a vision for their rebirth:

“I have asked staff to develop fit-for-purpose disclosures, exemptions, and safe harbors for so-called ‘initial coin offerings,’ ‘airdrops,’ and network rewards… I believe that if we stay the course, innovation could see a Cambrian explosion.”

If that happens, I think it could be a meaningful upside catalyst. Crypto investors have historically been eager to invest in crypto projects—both during and after the ICO boom. Launching a new ICO market 2.0 could attract significant new capital to crypto.

Conclusion

Markets don’t rise because of good news. They rise because of good news that isn’t priced in.

I think the market is broadly underestimating the scale of the crypto bull market. But I also think it’s overlooking specific catalysts that will play out over the coming months and years.

Brace for higher prices ahead.