After achieving a six-day winning streak and hitting a yearly high yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to open higher on August 12, targeting a seventh consecutive gain. As of yesterday, the latest A-share margin balance has once again surpassed the 2 trillion yuan mark, reaching 2,005.689 billion yuan, an increase of 16.736 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Notably, since 2025, the average daily A-share trading volume has reached 1,442.4 billion yuan, setting a new annual historical record for A-shares.
For active trading, watch brokerages. Recently, the brokerage sector—known as the "flag bearer of bull markets"—has shown strong momentum, with the Brokerage ETF (512000) experiencing both volume and price increases. Currently, it has rebounded in a V-shaped recovery during intraday trading. In recent days, the Brokerage ETF (512000) has seen concentrated capital inflows, with a single-day net inflow of 188 million yuan yesterday and a cumulative net inflow of 439 million yuan over the past five days. Its latest fund size has climbed to 25.521 billion yuan.
Looking ahead, Feng Chencheng, the fund manager of Brokerage ETF (512000), believes multiple factors could catalyze the brokerage sector: 1) The margin balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan, hitting a decade high, alongside theme rotation and accumulated wealth effects; 2) The "margin buying as a percentage of market turnover" still lags behind last year's peak (over 11%), indicating market sentiment has not yet peaked; 3) Since the start of the year, the brokerage sector's gains have trailed consensus net profit growth expectations, suggesting the lagging "summer rally" in brokerages may continue.
Huatai Securities noted that new account openings in July rose 71% year-on-year, with the margin balance exceeding 1.99 trillion yuan. As market risk appetite rises and earnings expectations remain high, the brokerage sector's ROE is entering an upward phase. Moreover, this round of brokerage performance may demonstrate stronger stability and sustainability, warranting attention to the sector's ongoing recovery driven by a positive cycle of market, expectations, and earnings.
