As the foundation supporting the U.S. stock market's rise faces challenges, risk aversion sentiment in the market has intensified sharply.

Over the past week, all three major U.S. stock indices fell. The S&P 500 dropped 2.4%, marking its worst performance since May 23; the Dow Jones declined 2.9%, its worst week since April 4; and the Nasdaq fell 2.2%.

Weakness in the U.S. job market has led traders to dramatically increase their bets on a Fed rate cut in September, jumping from 40% earlier to 90%. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates the Fed may implement a "triple cut": reducing rates by 25 basis points each at the September, October, and December meetings.

U.S. tariff measures have also pressured stocks, with new tariff rates ranging between 10% and 41%. The latest tariffs have pushed the average U.S. tariff rate on global imports to 15%, the highest level since the 1930s.

Amid mixed bullish and bearish factors, U.S. stocks may struggle to achieve an annual gain of over 20% this year. Wells Fargo Investment Institute predicts that, due to delayed tariff implementation and strong corporate earnings, the S&P 500 will end 2025 between 6,300 and 6,500 points—higher than its previous forecast of 5,900 to 6,100—though this is nearly unchanged from its August 1 closing level of 6,238.01. Wells Fargo maintains its preference for U.S. large- and mid-cap stocks over small-caps.