A Simple but Effective Trick
During earnings season, if you notice a company suddenly replacing its CFO (or financial head) or switching auditors (especially downgrading, e.g., from a Big Four firm to a local one), coupled with major shareholders reducing stakes or pledging shares—run for the hills.
Don’t assume pre-announced earnings are reliable. They can be revised downward, leaving you blindsided.
Case Study: Youzu Interactive
-
Dec 28, 2019: Resignation of non-independent director Wang Pengfei (core planner since 2010) and vice president Cui Rong (since 2011).
-
Feb 28, 2020: Preliminary 2019 results: revenue ¥3.516B, profit ¥575M.
-
Same day: CFO Lu Jun (ex-PwC partner with 22 years’ experience) resigned. Notably, Youzu replaced PwC with local auditor Lishen.
-
Mar 13, 2020: Major shareholder Lin Qi cut stake by 1%.
-
Apr 28, 2020: Revised results: revenue ¥3.22B (-10.07%), profit ¥166M (-84.18%). Stock price hit limit-down.
Red Flags Summary:
-
Reluctance to hire reputable international auditors (especially when CFO hails from one).
-
Sudden departure of CFO/financial heads during sensitive reporting periods.
-
Key department heads (e.g., core planners) exiting near fiscal year-end.
-
Sudden major stake reductions/pledges around reporting dates.
-
History of large shareholder sell-offs (e.g., 2019’s repeated减持).