The weekly plan has been stalled for two weeks. The USD movement has been extremely distorted, and currency pairs are in disarray. Some of the planned directions and levels in the weekly plan have already been tested, while others have become invalid, leaving me stuck in observation mode for nearly two weeks. During this time, due to the new highs in the U.S. stock market, I attempted a contrarian cross-asset bet on risk-on sentiment. However, I ended up being worn down by the relentless bombardment of conflicting news and tariff uncertainties, ultimately exiting with a 3% loss—just before dawn.

After the new highs in U.S. stock indices, I observed a slight shift toward risk assets. First, in cryptocurrencies: after Bitcoin hit a new high, I ventured into second- and third-tier altcoins, only to have nearly all profits wiped out by the sudden plunge over the past two days, leaving me with little desire to re-enter for now. Another area was the red-hot stock market. Following the new highs in U.S. indices, European stocks, led by the DAX, followed suit. Last week, Singapore and Australian stocks also hit new highs. This week, I immediately jumped into Australian indices, only to get slaughtered and flee in disarray (the expected RBA rate cut failed to sustain the rally, leading to choppy high-level consolidation—I exited; later, trade optimism provided some relief, and the risk-sensitive AUD edged up slightly, but my interest in re-entering remains limited).

Asset correlations remain abnormal—long bonds, equities, crypto, and gold are moving inconsistently, making it impossible to confirm where mispricing lies. The dilemma of whether this is the beginning of a major bull market or a final狂欢 (last狂欢) leaves me paralyzed.

Then, Japan announced a tariff agreement, and Japanese stocks immediately reacted. Subsequently, the anomalies between assets began to fade. Shortly after, optimistic expectations emerged: the upcoming trilateral talks between the East (China) and the U.S. in Switzerland next week, and the potential for a U.S.-EU deal. Look—the chaotic capital is finally making choices.

Perhaps influenced by this wave of positive sentiment, the Hang Seng Index, after hesitating for days near this year’s highs, finally staged a firm breakout. Meanwhile, the cross-asset bet I had made earlier—which failed just before dawn—started moving in the expected risk-on direction. Though not explosively, the signs are there. Next, as events unfold one after another, sentiment may intensify, and lagging assets could catch up.

I hope no more unexpected shocks emerge. In fact, over the past two weeks—or even the past month—the market has been extremely chaotic, driven largely by fundamental factors, news events, and data shocks, resulting in thin liquidity, cautious观望 (wait-and-see), and wild swings. Amid fundamental uncertainty, technical analysis has been nearly useless. Only intraday and ultra-short-term traders thrived, while longer-term holders and trend followers faced a hard mode. As a novice, I’m reduced to hoping for certainty to arrive soon so that analysis and planning can regain relevance. Looking forward to more confirmations and good news from the East (China) and the EU next week.

Early entry carries high risk but favorable risk-reward; waiting for right-side confirmation reduces risk but offers poorer risk-reward. So, can fundamental-based preemptive positioning strike a balance? My mentor says: "The market unfolds as it will." This is the right side within the left—if you’re confident, go for it. Set your stops, then wait for the flowers to bloom or the rain to fall.